In 1975 the University of Houston-Clear Lake created the first degree programin Futures Studies. Now the faculty of that.program share their approach to preparing foresight professionals and others doing foresight projects. This volume contains a comprehensive and integrated approach that practitioners and educators alike can use to understand the.theories, methods, and applications ofthis new field. Based on 35 years of teaching, this volume reveals how to systematically.deal with change, how to develop scenarios that describe alternative futures and how to develop visions and plans for influencing those futures.The systematic description of the past (history) was established 2,500 years ago. Unfortunately,.educational systems around the world have failed to prepare their students for their changing and challenging future. It is.now time to establish a systematic approach to the future. Teaching about the Future. is an important step in that direction. INDICE: Lists of Tables .List of Figures .Preface.Purposes.Acknowledgements .Introduction .Introducing the Future .Why Teach the Future? .The Problem ofPrediction .The Future(s) .Be Prepared .Imagine the Future .Create the Future.The Tricks of Foresight.Telling Stories .Pursuing Visions .The Benefits of Foresight .Structure of the Book.PART I: UNDERSTANDING .Models of Change .Introduction .Understanding Change.What is Change? .How Much Change is There? .The Four Dimensions of Change .A Model of Change: Punctuated Equilibrium .'What can we know about the future?' .[Not] Predicting the Future .Certainty .Assumptions .Types of Futures: the Cone of Plausibility .Futures Methods .Some Definitions Around Methods .Thinking about the Future Framework .Conclusion .Resources .Systems Thinking .Introduction .History .Limits to Growth: Three Strikes! .Generalization .System Behaviours .Approach .Cybernetic Systems .Complex Adaptive Systems .Conclusion .Resources .Perspectives on the Future .Introduction .History .Empirical and Cultural .Critical .Integral .Generalization.Approach .Causal Layered Analysis .Integral Futures .Conclusion .Resources .Social Change .Introduction .History .Generalization.Explaining Social Change .Critical Assumptions .Approach .Conclusion .Resources .PART II: MAPPING .Research .Introduction .History.Generalization .Choosing a Domain .Primary Research .SecondaryResearch .Approach .Research Supports Framework Forecasting .Conclusion .Resources .Scanning .Introduction .History .Generalization .Why Scanning is Difficult .Approach .Identify Scanning Hits .Scan a Wide Range of Sources .Operate at Different Levels of the Domain .Keep an Eye on Wildcards .Keep Track of YourHits .Distinguish Types of Scanning Hits .Establish Criteria for Evaluating Scanning Hits .Conclusion .Resources .Forecasting .Introduction .History .Generalization.Forecasting Theory .Approach: Framework Forecasting .Summary .Era Analysis .Baseline Forecasting .Critical Thinking .Baseline Analysis .Creativity.Alternative Futures Forecasting .Scenario Kernels .Conclusion .Resources .PART III: INFLUENCING .Leadership .Introduction .History.Era I: Traits .Era 2: Situation .Era 3: Effectiveness .Era 4: Contingency .Era 5: Shared Leadership .Era 6: Managers and Leaders .Generalization .Leadership Distinctions .Approach.Leading People into New Territory .Exploring Boundaries of the Possible .Committing to Goals They Do Not Know How to Achieve .Building Bridges When They Only Know One Side of the River .Motivating People to Do What They Don't Want to Do .Conclusion .Resources .Visioning .Introduction .History .Generalization .Attributes of a Vision .Vision Statements .Approach .Values .Background .Conclusion .Resources .Planning .Introduction .History .Generalization .Approach .Planning to Plan .Understanding the Future .Setting the Direction .Developing the Plan .Conclusion .Resources .Change Management .Introduction .History .Generalization .Establish a Sense of Urgency .Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition .Is Rarely Chosen; it is Almost Always Forced by External Circumstances. Always Creates Disagreements About Timing and Scope . Is Always Uneven, Disorganized, Messy, Chaotic. Always Politicizes Communication. Always Changes the Relative Position of Groups. Always Occurs One Person at a Time. Is Never Fully Adopted by Force.Approach .Have a Good Reason .Be Honest about the Process .Articulate a Vision .Commit to Achieve the Vision .Communicate! .Generate Trust .Conclusion .Resources .Appendices .Appendix 1: Framework Forecasting Specification.Appendix 2: World Futures .Appendix 2: World Futures.Appendix 3: Scanning Form and Explanation .Bibliography.
- ISBN: 978-0-230-36349-6
- Editorial: Palgrave Macmillan
- Encuadernacion: Cartoné
- Páginas: 328
- Fecha Publicación: 29/06/2012
- Nº Volúmenes: 1
- Idioma: Desconocido