Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era: Incomplete Data, Imperfect Markets

Reality–based modeling for today?s unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book?s unique focus on the reality of today?s markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception–biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets? behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today?s economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real–world, observable data in order to make better–informed decisions in toady?s markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post–recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real–world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers? forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after–effects linger and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today?s economic decision–makers. INDICE: Preface/Justification .Acknowledgments .Chapter 1: Setting the Context .The Problem with Uncritical Assumptions in a Less Than Perfect Economy .The Problem with Models in an Imperfect Economy .Four Characteristics of a Less than Perfect Economy .Economic Policy Inconsistencies The Parable of Strange Bedfellows .Chapter 2: Dynamic Adjustment in an Economy: Frictions Matter .Introduction .Quantifying Frictions: Is the Long–run Average a Useful Guide for Future? .Modeling Dynamic Adjustment Due to Economic Frictions: Decision Making in an Evolving World .Dynamic Economic Adjustment: An Evolution Unto Itself .Appendix .Chapter 3: Information: Past Imperfect, Present Incomplete, Future Uncertain .Story Behind the Numbers .Conclusion .Chapter 4: Price Adjustment & Search for Equilibrium .What barriers are there to perfectly flexible prices? .Implications .Finding Dynamic Adjustment in the Data .Chapter 5: Business Investment .Drivers of Business Spending .Putting All Together: Explaining Slow Recovery in Capital Investment? .Chapter 6: Corporate Profits: Reward, Incentive and That Standard of Living .Introduction .The Role of Profits in the Economic Cycle: Five Drivers .The Role of Profits in the Economy .Concluding Remarks .Chapter 7: Labor Market Evolution: Implications for Private Sector and Public Policy Decision Makers .Labor Market Imperfections .Part II: Heterogeneity in the Labor Market .Part III: How Do Secular Labor Market Trends Impact Economic Policy? .Chapter 8: Inflation .Introduction .What Is Inflation? .Why Does Inflation Matter? .What Determines Inflation? .Inflation After the Great Recession .Application: Predicting If Central Banks Can Achieve Price Stability .Chapter 9: Interest Rates and Credit .Imperfect Guidance in an Uncertain World .A Look at Actual History over the Long–Run .Credit Section .Imperfect Information and Credit .The Policymaker s Catch–22 the Dynamic Inconsistency of Current Policy and Implications for Private Decision Makers .Predicting Yields Multivariate Analysis .Do Global Yields Correlate with U.S. Yields? .Credit Spreads: A Break with History .Patterns since the Great Recession: Corporate Debt Yields and Equity Earnings Case Against the Central Wisdom of Low Volatility .Identifying a Structural Break .Conclusion .Chapter 10: Three Dimensional Checkers: Open Economy, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates .Newton s Third law .Three Dimensional Checkers on an International Playing Field .A Perfect Model in an Imperfect World .A Model for Policy Not the Real World .Violation of Three Conditions for Perfect Competition .Imperfect Information and Price/Policy Maker Discovery .Persistent Disequilibrium in Prices and Exchange Rates Dynamic Adjustment Problem .Price Adjustments: Limits by Policymakers .Capital Flows and Treasury Yields in the Post–Great Recession Era .Is the Post–2007 Economy Structurally Different? .Tracking U.S. Capital Flows: What Has Changed? .Are Global Treasury Yields Mean–Reverting? .Concluding Remarks: Future Looks Different .Chapter 11: Assessing Economic Policy in an Imperfect Economy .Generalized Policy Model .Rules and Reputation: Beyond Economic Benchmarks .Confronting Our Three Market Imperfections .Economic Policy in the Context of an Imperfect Economy .About the Authors .Index

• ISBN: 978-1-119-34983-9
• Editorial: John Wiley & Sons
• Encuadernacion: Cartoné
• Páginas: 400
• Fecha Publicación: 25/01/2017
• Nº Volúmenes: 1
• Idioma: Inglés