A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid. This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input–output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter–sub–regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions. This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work–out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales. Global dynamics: Presents in depth models of global dynamics. Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid. Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development. Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development. Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts. This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students. INDICE: Notes on contributors .Acknowledgements .Part 1. Global dynamics and the tools of complexity science .Chapter 1. Global dynamics and the tools of complexity science Alan Wilson .References .Part 2. Trade and economic development .Chapter 2. The global trade system and its evolution Simone Caschili, Francesca Medda and Luca Coconcelli .2.1 The evolution of the shipping and ports system .2.2 Analyses of the cargo ship network .2.3 A complex adaptive systems (CAS) perspective .2.4 Conclusions: the benefits of a systems perspective .References .Appendix .Chapter 3. A multi–layer model of international trade Simone Caschili, Francesca Medda and Alan Wilson .3.1 Introduction .3.2 The Interdependent Multi–layer Model: vertical integration .3.3 Model layers .3.3.1 Economic layer .3.3.2 Bilateral trade .3.3.3 Social and cultural layer (Socio–cultural) .3.3.4 Physical layer .3.4 The workings of the model .3.5 Model calibration .3.6. Results–1: steady state .3.7 Results–2: estimation and propagation of shocks in the IMM .3.8 Discussion and conclusions .References .Chapter 4. An inter–national global input–output model Rob Levy, Thomas Oléron Evans and Alan Wilson .4.1 Introduction .4.2 Existing global economic models .4.3 Description of the model .4.3.1 Outline .4.3.2 Introduction to input–output tables .4.3.3 A single country model .4.3.4 An international trade model .4.3.5 Setting model coefficients from data .4.4 Solving the model .4.4.1 The Leontief equation .4.4.2 The drawbacks of mathematical elegance .4.4.3 Algorithm for an iterative solution .4.5 Analysis .4.5.1 Introduction .4.5.2 Simple modelling approaches .4.5.3 A unified network approach .4.5.4 Comparison with a multi–region input–output model .4.6 Comparison with a multi–region input–output model .Acknowledgements .References .Part 3. Migration .Chapter 5. Modelling and policy challenges Adam Dennett and Pablo Mateos .5.1 Introduction .5.2 Policy and migration research .5.2.1 Key policy issues in contemporary migration research .5.2.2 Linking policy issues to modelling challenges .5.2.3 Policy–related research questions for modellers .5.2.4 Other international migration modelling research .5.3 Conclusion .References .Appendix .Chapter 6. Inter–regional migration in Europe Adam Dennett and Alan Wilson .6.1 Introduction .6.2 The spatial system and the modelling challenge .6.3 Biproportional fitting modelling methodology .6.4 Model parameter calibration .6.5 Model experiments .6.6 Results .6.7 Conclusions and comments on the new framework for estimating inter–regional, inter–country migration flows in Europe .Chapter 7. Global migration flows: estimating an annual time series of global migration flows an alternative methodology for using migrant stock data Adam Dennett .7.1 Introduction .7.2 Methodology .7.2.1 Introduction .7.2.2 Calculating Migration Probabilities .7.2.3 Calculating total migrants in the global system .7.2.4 Generating a consistent time–series of migration probabilities .7.2.5 Producing annual bilateral estimates .7.3 Results and validation .7.3.1 Introduction .7.3.2 IMEM comparison .7.3.4 UN flow data comparison .7.4 Discussion .7.5 Conclusions .References .Part 4. Security .Chapter 8. Conflict modelling Peter Baudains and Alan Wilson .8.1 Introduction .8.2 Conflict intensity: space–time patterning of events .8.3 Understanding conflict onset: simulation–based models .8.4 Forecasting global conflict hotspots .8.5 A spatial model of threat .8.6 Discussion: The use of a spatial threat measure in models of conflict .8.6.1 Threat in models for operational decision–making .8.6.2 Threat in a model of conflict escalation .8.6.3 Threat in modelling global military expenditure .8.6.4 Summary .References .Chapter 9. Riots Peter Baudains .9.1 Introduction .9.2 The 2011 riots in London .9.2.1 Space–time Interaction .9.2.2 Journey to Crime .9.2.3 Characteristics of Rioters .9.3 Data–driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion .9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice .9.5 A Generative Model of the Riot .9.6 Discussion .References .Chapter 10. Rebellions Peter Baudains, Jyoti Belur, Alex Braithwaite, Elio Marchione and Shane Johnson .10.1 Introduction .10.2 Data .10.3 Hawkes model .10.4 Results .10.5 Discussion .References .Chapter 11. Piracy Elio Marchione and Alan Wilson .11.1 The model .11.2 The test case .11.3 Uses of the model .References .Appendix .Chapter 12. Insurgency Shane Johnson, Alex Braithwaite .12.1 Introduction .12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq .12.3 Counterinsurgency Data .12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time, and Space–Time Distributions .12.4.1 Introduction .12.4.2 Spatial Distribution .12.4.3 Temporal Distribution .12.4.4 Space–Time Distribution .12.4.5 Univariate Knox analysis .12.4.6 Bivariate Knox Analysis .12.5 Concluding Comments .References .Chapter 13. International information flows, government response, and the contagion of ethnic conflict Janina Beiser .13.1 Introduction .13.2 Global information flows .13.3 The effect of information flows on armed civil conflict .13.4 The effect of information flows on government repression .13.5 Conclusion .References .Appendix .Part 5. Aid and development .Chapter 14. International development aid: a complex system Belinda Wu .14.1 Introduction: a complex systems perspective .14.2 The international development aid system: definitions .14.3 Features of international development aid as a complex system .14.3.1 Introduction .14.3.2 Non–linearity .14.3.3 Connectedness .14.3.4 Self–adapting and self–organising .14.3.5 Emergence .14.4 Complexity and approaches to research .14.4.1 Organisations .14.4.2 The range of issues .14.4.3 Research approaches .14.4.4 The complexity science approach .14.4.5 Whether aid can be effective .14.4.6 Complexity in the measurement of aid effectiveness .14.4.7 Complexity in methods/standards of measurement of aid effectiveness .14.4.8 Standardising aid effectiveness .14.5 Relationships and interactions .14.5.1 Relationships between donor and recipient countries .14.5.2 Relationships between aid and other systems .14.6 Conclusions .References .Chapter 15. Model–building for the system international development aid Belinda Wu and Alan Wilson .15.1 Introduction .15.2 Data collection .15.2.1 Introduction .15.2.2 Aid data .15.2.3 Trade data .15.2.4 Security data .15.2.5 Migration data .15.2.6 Geographical data .15.2.7 Data selected .15.3 Model building .15.3.1 Modelling approach .15.3.2 Alesina and Dollar model .15.3.3 Our models .15.3.4 Model B: introducing donor interactions and modification of the model .15.3.5 Findings from Model B .15.3.6 Model C: introducing interactions with trade system and further modification of the model .15.3.7 Findings from Model C .15.4 Discussion and future work .References .Chapter 16. Aid allocation Robert Downes and Steven Bishop .16.1 Aid allocation networks .16.1.1 Introduction .16.1.2 Why networks? .16.1.3 Donor motivation in aid allocation .16.2 Quantifying aid via a mathematical model .16.2.1 Overview of approach .16.2.2 Basic setup .16.2.3 The network of nations .16.2.4 Preference functions .16.2.5 Specifying the preference functions .16.2.6 Recipient selection by donors .16.3 Application of the model .16.3.1 Introduction .16.3.2 Scenario 1. No feedback .16.3.3 Scenario 2. Bandwagon feedback .16.3.4 Scenario 3. Aid effectiveness feedback .16.3.5 Aid usage mechanism .16.3.6 Application .16.3.7 Conclusion .16.4 Conclusions .References .Appendix .Part 6. Global dynamics: an integrated model and policy challenges .Chapter 17. Modelling and exploring global policy challenges Peter Baudains, Thomas Oléron–Evans, Rob Levy and Alan Wilson .17.1 Introduction .17.2 Adding migration .17.2.1 Introduction .17.2.2 The familiarity effect .17.2.3 Consumption similarity .17.2.4 Conclusions .17.3 Adding aid .17.3.1 Introduction .17.3.2 Estimating exportness .17.3.3 Modelling Approach .17.3.4 Results .17.3.5 Conclusions .17.4 Adding Security .17.4.1 Introduction .17.4.2 Literature review .17.4.3 Measures of threat and the global dynamics model .17.4.4 Trade during changing security conditions .17.4.5 An experiment of increased threat in the global dynamics model .17.4.6 Conclusions .17.5 Concluding comments .References .Index
- ISBN: 978-1-118-92228-6
- Editorial: Wiley–Blackwell
- Encuadernacion: Cartoné
- Páginas: 360
- Fecha Publicación: 08/07/2016
- Nº Volúmenes: 1
- Idioma: Inglés